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Recently, the non-farm payroll report for July released by the U.S. Labor Department sparked a strong reaction in the financial markets. The data, which contradicted expectations, not only shocked the market but also raised doubts about the credibility of official data.
The report shows that the number of new jobs added in July was only 70,000, far below the previous expectation of around 180,000. This data undoubtedly brought a huge shock to the market. However, what is even more surprising is the labor bureau's significant revision of past data. The employment data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, while the June data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. This means that over the course of two months, the official data actually erased 258,000 jobs.
Such a huge correction has raised strong doubts among market participants. Some analysts believe that the randomness of these data corrections may undermine the credibility of official statistics and could even be seen as a way to mislead the market.
This change has also put Fed Chair Powell in an awkward position. Previously, Powell maintained a high interest rate policy based on the "strong" performance of the labor market. However, the latest data revisions seem to shake the foundation of this policy, potentially forcing the Fed to reassess its monetary policy stance.
The financial markets reacted strongly to this event. On the evening the data was released, global financial markets generally fell, while the cryptocurrency market showed an upward trend against the tide, raising concerns about potential speculative behavior.
This event once again highlights the significant impact of economic data on financial markets and policy making, while also reminding investors to be cautious about single data points and to conduct a comprehensive analysis of market trends. In the future, the market will closely monitor the true state of the U.S. labor market and the potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve.