This Monday, the global financial markets experienced an unexpectedly calm start. Major markets such as A-shares, the US dollar, and gold remained almost completely still. This abnormal tranquility did not lead to a rise due to the warming expectations of interest rate cuts, nor did it continue the big dump trend from last Friday.

However, this surface calm actually masks the deep uncertainty in the market. Investors seem to be caught in a collective mood of doubt, adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards future directions.

Tonight's performance of the US stock market will become a barometer of market sentiment. If it can stop the fall, it may temporarily alleviate the current market pressure. At the same time, the trend of the US dollar is also under close watch, as its strength may indicate that the impact of the non-farm data is only fleeting, and the market focus will soon shift to next week's inflation data and next month's employment report.

However, the most concerning issue is that the credibility of U.S. employment data is facing severe challenges. Recently, the number of new jobs added in April and May was significantly revised down by 258,000, marking the largest two-month downward revision during non-recession periods since 1968. This not only undermines market confidence in employment data but may also exacerbate future market volatility.

What is even more alarming is that, according to Goldman Sachs’ forecast, the preliminary estimate for the "benchmark revision" for March 2025, which the U.S. Labor Department is set to release this September, may significantly lower the employment data again, possibly by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs. This means that the average monthly employment data could decrease by an additional 45,000 to 80,000 jobs. If this prediction comes true, it would be the largest downward revision of employment data since 2010, which would not only change the perception of past employment conditions but also redefine the current actual employment level.

The employment report has always been an important indicator of market confidence, but now the reliability of this indicator itself is being questioned. The market seems to be entering a foggy period, where investors have to make decisions based on limited and possibly inaccurate information. This crisis of trust may have far-reaching effects on global financial markets, increasing the uncertainty of future market trends.