Bloomberg analyst: XRP ETF may be approved as early as September! SEC's new regulations clear obstacles, with an approval probability of 85%.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently stated that after the SEC announced the new listing rules for crypto ETPs (exchange-traded products), a number of altcoin ETFs, including the XRP ETF, are expected to be approved in September or October. The new rules specify that tokens with at least 6 months of futures trading records on a compliant derivatives platform (such as the Coinbase derivatives exchange) meet the listing criteria. Coupled with the approval of the Spot ETF physical redemption mechanism, the final operational hurdle for the XRP ETF has been cleared, and the market predicts its approval probability to remain stable at 85%.

【Interpretation of SEC New Regulations: Futures History as a Key Threshold】 The latest "listing standards" document for crypto ETPs released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) establishes a core premise: the underlying crypto assets must have at least 6 months of futures trading history on a compliant platform. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas interprets that:

This standard paves the way for mainstream alts such as XRP, Dogecoin ( DOGE ), Solana ( SOL ) that have already established derivatives trading, September or October is the most likely approval time window. The new regulations directly affect the Crypto Assets that have already engaged in futures trading, and those that meet the criteria will have a simplified approval process.

[Physical Redemption Mechanism: Clearing the Last Operational Hurdle] Previously, the SEC has approved the use of the "In-kind Creation/Redemption" mechanism for crypto ETPs:

• Core Mechanism: Authorized participants (AP) can directly create or redeem ETF shares using the underlying crypto assets (instead of cash).
• Industry Impact: Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan pointed out that this mechanism significantly improves efficiency and optimizes cost structure, aligning the operating model of cryptocurrency ETFs with commodity products such as gold ETPs, which is the final operational barrier to advancing altcoin ETFs (such as XRP ETF).

【XRP ETF Progress: High Approval Rate and Legal Variables】

1. Application Queue: The SEC is currently reviewing several XRP ETF proposals, including applications from well-known institutions Bitwise and Franklin Templeton ( (the latter's review period has been extended to the end of 2025).

2. High Probability Endorsement: The Balchunas team maintains an 85% high approval probability for the XRP ETF. Data from the prediction market Polymarket indicates that despite procedural delays, the approval chances for the XRP ETF are still as high as 86%.

   ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-8a53ffb275-153d09-7649e1((Source: Polymarket)

3. Key Milestones in Legal Proceedings: The legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC remains a variable. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel speculates that both parties may withdraw their appeals before the August 15 status report deadline; if true, this would clear a significant approval hurdle.

【Market Impact: October May Become the Outbreak Window for Crypto ETFs】 Balchunas' forecast brings the market's focus to October of this year, which may be a key window for the successful approval of the XRP ETF. If the XRP ETF is approved as scheduled, it will not only boost the XRP ecosystem but may also inject strong momentum into the entire Crypto Assets ETF sector (especially for other altcoin ETFs that meet futures trading conditions).

Conclusion: The SEC's new regulations have established a clear path for Crypto Assets ETFs with a history of futures trading, coupled with the implementation of a physical redemption mechanism, providing a solid institutional foundation for the approval of the XRP ETF in September-October. The 85% high approval rate and the potential swift resolution of legal disputes point to October as a key time node. Investors should closely monitor the developments of the Ripple case on August 15 and the SEC's approval dynamics. If the XRP ETF successfully breaks the ice, it will usher in a new chapter of altcoins being included in mainstream financial products, reshaping the landscape of the crypto market.